Monday, January 12, 2004

Yeah, yeah, so I said no more financey stuff. Damn me.

UK house prices drop, according to a relatively-new survey from the ODPM, in contradiction to what Halifax and Nationwide (who, funnily, probably make a profit on house prices...).

"However, Edward Stansfield, property market analyst at Capital Economics - who recently predicted that house prices would peak in mid-2004 and then fall 20% - said that the survey could not be written off as a blip."

Seems to be a day of "blips" - there's some debate over whether the yuletide rise in profit warnings was one too.

Of course, the US is still FUBAR - US bosses took on only 1,000 new workers in December, with the Euro leaping to new heights, somewhat rapidly, and Japan desperately selling to keep themselves lucid. It did strike me that the UK, as a mostly service-based nation, with a huge import addiction, may stand quite well as a result of a huge dollar crash. Or rather it's just a case of damage-limitation. If our exports are lower than our imports, then do we have less to suffer if the pound is so strong? Less than, say, Euro-based countries with a higher export rate.

I still guess that if the dollar dives, we'll get taken with it, and all the little people with less than no money will be wondering quite what happened. Squishy. 20% drop for house prices in late '04? Depends what the rest of the world is doing...

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